Investing - March 19, 2010
At the end of January and in our year end review, we noted that the macro conditions argued for rising volatility in the major averages with sideways to lower prices throughout February. This was indeed the case in the first week of the month as the VIX raced to new 2010 highs and the S&P to new 2010 lows. This situation gave rise to many trading opportunities for our systems early in the month. Volatility faded sharply mid-month on the back of the equity rally, reducing our opportunities and we spent most of the last week of February in cash. Traders made several attempts to break the market at the end of the month, but prices rebounded to close the month.
Our Monticello Equity Spreads program booked its most successful month since April of 2009, with the Jefferson Index posting its most successful month since December of 2008 and its 12th consecutive positive month. (For detailed performance results, click here.) For the second month in a row, both of our programs had nearly identical performance, despite substantial variance in trading through the month. That is unlikely to continue.
PERFORMANCE ABSTRACT
Monticello Equity
February 2010:
6.57%
2010 YTD: 7.67%
Jefferson Index
February 2010:
5.72%
2010 YTD: 6.77%
S&P 500
February 2010:
3.10%
2010 YTD: (0.70%)
Newedge CTA Index
February 2010:
1.05%‡
2010 YTD: (0.82%)‡
‡Estimate using data reported by 3/1/2010 | Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The macro environment has not improved since our last survey. The situation in Greece has taken a turn for the absurd, as it becomes clear that it used OTC derivatives to mask the depth of its deficit and debt. Greece and its euro-zone equivalents remain unable to address their fiscal shortcomings because public unions undermine the political will to cut off the public trough. More than one sovereign default is imminent.
A similar situation continues to play out in various debt swamped US states. As Illinois is our home, it is our favorite example. The state finally admitted that it will likely have a $13 billion dollar budget shortfall-almost half it’s core 2010 budget-which is almost as much as California’s deficit, though Illinois has 1/3 the population of the Golden State. The politicians are talking about raising revenues to meet the crisis, but even a 300% hike in state income taxes would not fill the gap (especially considering the decline in incomes and employment in this recession). And of course, addressing only revenue sources does nothing to fix structural budget imbalances, enormous unfunded pension and health benefit liabilities or general government waste. California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, North Carolina and Florida are not far behind. Without a federal bailout, Illinois should be in default before the end of the year.
We want to be clear on what the risk of this unfolding sovereign debt crisis means. As all recent economic data has indicated, the global recovery is soft-even after trillions of dollars were thrown into the financial system by central banks and governments. High levels of public debt have prolonged past recoveries by placing debt burdens on future growth, but this debt environment is very different. Never before have so many wealthy nations carried such high levels of public debt. Either Western governments reign in the spending, which will keep us in a protracted (but necessary) period of economic stagnation, or they march onward to default, which brings on the second wave of global financial crisis. This is not a question of if for us, but when. Living standards in the West have increased on paper asset inflation in the last 20 years; that “juice” has to come out of the market, living standards must revert to income levels and then real economic growth can resume.
The disconnect between US equity market prices and reality will continue in the short term. The S&P 500 has retraced a little over 50% toward its 2010 high. Traders will gun for 1150 in the S&P, pouring into stocks the first days of the month of March. This rally should fade by the end of the first week and the S&P will be range-bound awaiting news (look for a potential surprise lower in the February non-farm payroll number). Bernanke indicated that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, but it is ending the purchase of mortgage backed securities at the end of March which could test the banks. If previous shallow recessions are any indication this deep recession will necessitate prolonged record low interest rates for years, even in the face of a sovereign debt crisis. With the euro in crisis, the dollar will find support in the lack of a currency alternative. Stocks remain cheap to cash, so the major averages should rally until the sovereign debt crisis forces the market to test its 2010 lows.
We expect near term volatility to return to elevated levels in the next few weeks. This should provide our systems with many trading opportunities in March.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. An investment with ROE Capital Management is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the loss of more than their entire investment. Read and examine the disclosure document before seeking ROE Capital Management’s services.
John L. Roe | President | ROE Capital Management, Inc. | http://www.roecapital.com
Ranked as one of the top stock index CTAs in 2009. | For performance – http://www.roecapital.com/perform.asp | For market commentary – http://www.roecapital.com/newsleters.htm
Article Source: ROE Capital Management March 2010 Equity Market Outlook and February Performance Update
Debt Consolidation - March 19, 2010
Individuals have a very different set of circumstances to consider than large corporations. In the worst case, a corporation can simply liquidate its assets and cease to exist. An individual has no such option. Though they too can liquidate their assets, they must continue to live and work in society and therefore must take extreme care to ensure they make the right decision.
Most individuals who are forced to declare bankruptcy choose Chapter 7. In Chapter 7, the person must liquidate, or sell off, the majority of their assets and use the proceeds to repay creditors. After the proceeds are exhausted, the remainder of the debt is discharged, with a few exceptions. Those with few assets compared to their level of debt usually find this to be the best choice. Other individuals, however, may which to keep their assets. This is especially true in the case of small business owners whose business is viewed as a personal asset. For these people, Chapter 13 is available. Chapter 13 allows the person to retain all or most of their assets, though control of the assets is given to a trustee until the debt is satisfactorily repaid.
Some individuals may find the idea of having a trustee in control of their assets unappealing and out of the question. Others may simply not qualify for Chapter 13 due to a high amount of debt, especially true of asset intensive small business owners. For these people, the corporate route of Chapter 11 is often the best or only route.
Chapter 11 allows the person to stay in control of their assets. Instead of having to make monthly debt payments, they may be eligible for quarterly or even bi annual payments which fit more closely to business operations. Also, under Chapter 11, there is no set time limit for the repayment of debts. Under Chapter 13 the repayment period can’t exceed 5 years.
Chapter 11 is more expensive than Chapter 13 and its more complicated statutes demand the services of a skilled Chapter 11 bankruptcy attorney. Paperwork requirements alone can take up much of your time if you are unfamiliar with them. Regardless, many people still find Chapter 11 to be their best option when faced with the unpleasant situation of excessive debt.
If you would like to learn more Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Information you can do so by visiting http://chapter11bankruptcyinformation.org.
Article Source: Is Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Just For Businesses?
Debt Consolidation - March 19, 2010
The two main benefits of a debt consolidation credit counseling plan are the reductions in finance charges and a reduced monthly payment that is more affordable for the client to manage monthly. While a reduction in interest is a primary long term benefit, a lower monthly payment is usually more pertinent to solving the consumer’s current credit crisis.
Some creditors have introduced new debt management plans (DMP) referred to as –Call to Action- that offer low or now interest rates to people who can qualify under extreme financial hardship. These new debt consolidation plans allow consumers to save from $25 to $200 more a month than a regular debt management plan.
But not everyone can qualify for this modified debt management plan. The criterion for enrollment into the CTA DMP is decided on a case by case basis by a certified credit counselor with the final acceptance coming from the individual creditors. A certified credit counselor helps determine a consumers eligibility for the CTA by administering a financial analysis covering sources of income, living expenses, and monthly debt obligations. This is also referred to as a budget counseling session or a household budget. If client qualifies by expressing extreme financial hardship a CTA DMP is recommended instead of a regular debt management plan.
Participating creditors, not all just yet, waive late and over limit fees and make favorable adjustments to the APR (finance charges) so that the CTA DMP will not extend longer than 60 months just like a regular debt management plan. While all creditors aside from Dell and Credit One participate in regular debt management plans not all are technically able to offer the CTA alternative.
In its infancy there have been no recorded success reports or percentages of completions under these new debt management plans but the NFCC advises that an initial review will be conducted and available by early August 2010.
Consumers who want to repay their debt through a DMP can truly benefit from this new hardship plan, especially those with a very tight monthly budget. Obviously a creditor would rather get some return than none and the efforts being put forth by banks show such as bankruptcy filings increase and creditors are reaching for new solutions.
To see if you qualify for a CTA DMP or a regular DMP speak to a certified credit counselor today for a free consultation and budget counseling session. Non Profit debt solutions are available to those serious about getting out of debt. A debt consolidation program can provide a lower monthly payment and interest reductions from 0 percent to 10 percent and have you debt free in five years or less. Speak to a certified counselor about your options and long term financial goals at 800-905-1563 or visit our website freedomdm.org and complete our application. You can also utilize our LIVE CHAT feature and speak to a live counselor online with no obligation.
debt consolidation, develop a household budget
Article Source: Debt Consolidation Calls Creditors to Action
Taxes - March 19, 2010
The one thing that unites everyone in the United States is tax. This is simply because we all have to pay! Most people focus on April as the key time for tax filings, but corporations small and large don’t have that much time. Instead, they must file in March each year or seek an extension.
When you think of corporations, entities like Google, IBM and Toyota come to mind. While these entities can get extensions, in this article we are more interested in the small business corporations. These are less likely to have an active CPA overseeing them and thus tax issues can be a bigger problem. Fortunately, filing for an extension is very simple these days.
The IRS created a uniform business extension filing process in 2006. Before that year, it was a smorgasborg of forms and substantiations. Now one needs to simply file form 7004 to receive an automatic six month extension to file the corporate tax return. This effectively means the return is not due until September each year, which gives you just enough time to enjoy summer.
There is, however, a bit of confusion regarding exactly what filing a form 7004 request will do for you. The form is an extension to file the corporate tax return. It is not an extension to pay the taxes the corporate entity owes the federal government. If you do not pay the taxes due at the March deadline, the business will have to pay penalties and interest on any taxes due when the return is filed in September.
What if September rolls around and the business isn’t ready to file. Can it get a second extension? Yes and no. There is no automatic extension. Instead, the IRS wants to see a good reason. If you provide one, the second extension might be granted but for a relatively short period. Even so, penalties and interest will be accumulating on the taxes due.
Richard A. Chapo writes for BusinessTaxRecovery.com – where you can find a tax evasion lawyer if you get in hot water with the IRS.
Article Source: Getting An Extension on Corporate Tax Returns
Investing - March 19, 2010
Earn Profits by Trading Corn Futures
Investing in the stock market can be very lucrative or not for a trader. The results will ultimately depend on how well he places his investments. Trading futures is really high risk however the possible profits one can gain will balance these risks. By learning to trade in corn futures and other commodities, you can reap a high reward and find ways to lower your risk at the same time.
Through online research, you can quickly learn how to trade futures. Corn futures in particular have a way of changing in price from day to day depending on the supply and demand. The Internet is a great way to keep up with these changes and allows the smart investor to track their movements with little to no effort.
You can buy as well as track corn futures and other commodities in numerous sites online. These can be an invaluable tool for the investor that would like to do this without the use of a broker. All the profits will be reverted to you once you buy stocks this way since you don’t have to worry anymore about brokerage fees.
Trading in corn futures however is one of the higher risk investments available today. If you want to lower your investment risks, you should use a broker. Learn how to trade futures.
There are two methods you can use to minimize your investment risk. Both involves a broker. One way is to create a managed account where the broker decides your futures purchases using your capital. With the broker’s extensive knowledge in market trends, he will undoubtedly be of help to you as to when to make an intelligent move.
The second method would be to enter into a commodity pool. What is involved here is that the overall investment is added to others. If there is a loss, it will be divided among a few people and not just you. Trading corn futures like this will have the lowest risk. Diversification to other commodities is also permitted in a commodity pool. One must learn how to trade futures properly.
In the internet, you can find many helpful sites that explain trading methods and how to invest properly. All the sites will have tracking information on the trends in the commodities market as well as previous pricing guidelines. These sites will also have projections for the coming year which is really apt since what is being focused on is the futures market.
Through these sites, traders can gain enough knowledge comparable to brokers operating in an office. They utilize the same numbers and trending patterns to make their decisions and the Internet allows you to take advantage of this. Many of these websites also offer very low priced trades and are perfect for the part time investor or the full time day trader.
Do not acquire new position, if you are going to use the funds from the sale of the stock you just sold. Alternatively, it is best to save the position you have purchased from cash from a previous same day sell. The trading rules I have offered here are the ones I have run across thru all the years i have been doing trade. Learn Option Futures.
Discover 3 FREE Powerful Trade Setups:
Futures Option Trading
Discover Powerful Futures Options Trading
Article Source: Acquire How To Trade Futures
Taxes - March 19, 2010
The one thing that unites everyone in the United States is tax. This is simply because we all have to pay! Most people focus on April as the key time for tax filings, but corporations small and large don’t have that much time. Instead, they must file in March each year or seek an extension.
When you think of corporations, entities like Google, IBM and Toyota come to mind. While these entities can get extensions, in this article we are more interested in the small business corporations. These are less likely to have an active CPA overseeing them and thus tax issues can be a bigger problem. Fortunately, filing for an extension is very simple these days.
The IRS created a uniform business extension filing process in 2006. Before that year, it was a smorgasborg of forms and substantiations. Now one needs to simply file form 7004 to receive an automatic six month extension to file the corporate tax return. This effectively means the return is not due until September each year, which gives you just enough time to enjoy summer.
There is, however, a bit of confusion regarding exactly what filing a form 7004 request will do for you. The form is an extension to file the corporate tax return. It is not an extension to pay the taxes the corporate entity owes the federal government. If you do not pay the taxes due at the March deadline, the business will have to pay penalties and interest on any taxes due when the return is filed in September.
What if September rolls around and the business isn’t ready to file. Can it get a second extension? Yes and no. There is no automatic extension. Instead, the IRS wants to see a good reason. If you provide one, the second extension might be granted but for a relatively short period. Even so, penalties and interest will be accumulating on the taxes due.
Richard A. Chapo writes for BusinessTaxRecovery.com – where you can find a tax evasion lawyer if you get in hot water with the IRS.
Article Source: Getting An Extension on Corporate Tax Returns